NEW EUROPE: Brussels dreaming the remake of 1981

Το άρθρο αναλύει τις ανησυχίες των Ευρωπαίων, και ειδικότερα, των Γερμανών, των Γάλλων και της γραφειοκρατίας των Βρυξελλών για την άνοδο αντιμνημονιακής αριστεράς και την πιθανή επικράτησή της κατά τις επόμενες εκλογές. Επικαλούμενος «καλά πληροφορημένες  πηγές των Βρυξελλών» ο αρθρογράφος ισχυρίζεται ότι έχουν αποκατασταθεί ήδη παρασκηνιακοί δίαυλοι επικοινωνίας μεταξύ Βρυξελλών και του Αλέξη Τσίπρα και έχει δημιουργηθεί μια κοινή αντίληψη για τα πρώτα μετεκλογικά βήματα. Σύμφωνα με αυτό το σενάριο, η ρητορική του ΣΥΡΙΖΑ προεκλογικά θα είναι χαμηλότερων τόνων, ενώ μετά τις εκλογές ο Αλέξης Τσίπρας θα «διαπιστώσει» κατά την πρώτη του επίσκεψη στις Βρυξέλλες ότι η Ελλάδα είναι εγκλωβισμένη στο μνημόνιο και μοναδική λύση είναι μια έντιμη επαναδιαπραγμάτευση.

Το άρθρο επικαλείται το προηγούμενο του Ανδρέα Παπανδρέου το 1981, όταν η «έξαλλη» αντιευρωπαϊκή και αντιαμερικανική προεκλογική ρητορική αντικαταστάθηκε εν μια νυκτί από ρεαλιστικότερες προσεγγίσεις.

Η διαφορά βέβαια, όπως επισημαίνει το άρθρο, είναι ότι το 1981 ο Ανδρέας μπόρεσε να «πουλήσει» στο λαό τη μεταστροφή αυτή δίνοντας την ίδια ώρα γενναίες αυξήσεις, κάτι που προφανώς δεν θα είναι σε θέση να κάνει μια μετεκλογική κυβέρνηση σήμερα. Μια εναλλακτική προσέγγιση, πάντα σύμφωνα με τον αρθρογράφο της New Europe, θα ήταν να στείλει η νέα κυβέρνηση τoυς πρωτεργάτες του Μνημονίου στο ειδικό δικαστήριο.

As Greece gets close to the June 17 election, the scenery gets quite clear and the prospects get easier to foresee. Greece is not an island, and thus its Eurozone future, at this very time, is determining for the future of the Eurozone itself and consequently the future of the European Union in its present format.

The importance for Greece to remain in the Eurozone, was emphasized by Christine Lagarde, a week earlier. Furthermore we remind our readers that last fall, in order for Greece to receive the seventh installment of the mega-loan under the EU/ECB/IMF agreement, and avoid bankruptcy, the then leader of the opposition, Andonis Samaras, was explicitly required from Brussels to recognize Greece’s obligations in writing (which he did to a big political cost despite the then-government having a majority in parliament). At this time the European Commission did not ask the leader of the Left, possible next Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, to sign a similar commitment so for for Greece to get last week’s installment. More so that the main electoral slogan of the later is “the agreement with the EU has been practically delegitimized and thus abolished by the May 6 vote of the Greek people.” When Samaras was blackmailed to sign he was speaking only about “renegotiation” of certain facets of the agreement.

Under the circumstances, only the naïve still believe that the European Union and the IMF will wait for the Greeks to elect a government after one month, which will decide for the future of the Eurozone. Indeed, the stakes are very high, and go well beyond a tiny country at the ends of the “empire” and certainly something else is “cooking” in the background. The central powers of Europe are ready and prepared for any electoral result in Greece, and what they only care is to take advantage of this opportunity slot offered by the present chaos, to secure their positions and further control any possible erratic behaviour of Greece. Such centres we are talking of, are Germany, France and the technostructure of Brussels, who are manipulating the situation with “chirurgical,” behind the scene moves, to achieve their targets with the minimum costs (in money terms) and without any apparent involvement.

Going back to recent Greek history, in the years followed the 1974 restoration of the democratic rule in the country after a 7-year military dictatorship, an anti-American climate developed as the Greeks considered the USA responsible for the military coup of 1967. The main demands of the great majority of the Greeks at the time, right, left and centre, were to “kick out” the American military bases from Greek territory and withdraw from NATO and the EU. In 1981, a leftist government was elected in Greece under Andreas Papandreou with main slogans “out the bases of death” and “EU and NATO, same syndicate.” As history proved after, the then Papandreou anti-American government, was fully in line with State and the intelligence community of Washington DC. In the years that followed, “the bases of death” remained fully operational in Greece and expanded their regional intelligence activities. The bluff was culminated with the signature of a seven-year agreement (the usual was five years), which Papandreou named it “agreement for the US military bases withdrawal,” while of NATO and the EU nobody ever spoke again. Nowadays, things are quite similar, yet not same as European interests replace American interests and the focus is economic. The problem Europeans are facing is that they have a partner who is horizontally, vertically and systemically corrupt. This partner is weak and cannot impose any austerity measure and any structural reforms to get the country back to European “order.” That is the reason Europeans are looking for a new “Andreas Papandreou” to do the dirty job and the potentially identify in the person of Alexis Tsipras. Indeed, not few in Greece see in the face of Alexis, the figure of late Andreas.

At present, all Greeks are against the austerity measures stemming from the loan agreement the previous government signed with the trio EU/BCB/IMF but such measures are imperative in order for the country not to go bankrupt and the Euro not to be affected. It is also imperative for the country to move towards a new, non-corrupt administration. These requirements, austerity and uncorrupted administration, make Greece’s European partners to believe that the traditional political class (New Democracy and PASOK) cannot deliver.

In this context, according to informed Brussels political circles, to much satisfaction and comfort of both sides, there has been recently established a confidential, off-the-record communication line between Brussels and Greek Left and an “understanding,” for a post electoral modus operandi has been reached, assuming that the Greek Left will form a government.

The subsequent scenario in this case seems to be that the June 17 election, the strong anti-EU rhetoric, that rhetoric will be diluted. After the election, the new Leftist government will visit Brussels and will “discover” Greece is locked into a deadlock by the previous government of “traitors” and that there is no way to avoid bankruptcy but through a compromise with Brussels along the lines of what was agreed. In this context, it will not be surprising if the Leftist government begins its term by sending to the Prosecutor members of the previous government under the accusation of treason, in order to justify its existence. However in this scenario there is much of wishful thinking as the situation is different than in 1981. Then, a few weeks after Papandreou was elected, the Greeks went to sleep with a salary of 2,000 drachmae per month and wok-up with 4,000. Today, after the June 17 election, no matter what the result will be, the Greeks will go to bed with €500 monthly salaries and will wake-up with €350.

As to corruption, it is worth considering that the present traditional political class, in terms of political leaders, it is not corrupt contrarily to what is believed. Nea Dimokratia (EPP) now led by Andonis Samaras is the party, which was in power from 2004 until 2009 with Prime Minister Kostas Karamanlis and that for two years after (2010-2011) the PASOK government under George Papandreou turned upside-down every single governmental dossier and found absolutely nothing wrong. Otherwise they would have referred to justice any, even minimum or suspect, corruption case. Also, the PASOK party under Evangelos Venizelos, not only “cleaned” itself from its past “sins” by putting aside any party apparatchik potentially involved with scandals but also, to big political cost, put in jail the former number two of PASOK under Andreas Papandreou, then minister of defence Akis Tsochatzoulos and his family, for money laundering.

Greek corruption is endemic in the administration and this is something that cannot be eradicated from one day to the other, especially by a government of the Left, with no experience, and with the corruption deep in its “genes” as it is integral part of its Marxist-Leninist culture. Thus the Brussels investment on a new situation in Greece may prove a midsummer night’s dream, if not a nightmare. Samaras and Venizelos may not be the best for Greece but it is all what it has. As to Brussels, will be good to remember the Greek saying, “better to deal with the devil you know, rather than with the devil you do not know.”

.K

neurope.eu

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